Re: Let's look at the big picture.

[P3D Peter Davis <pdavis@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

> > Now... consider this:
> >    They tried to do 3-D in the 20's.  It didn't catch on.
> >    They tried to do 3-D in the 50's, and it only caught on for a little 
> > while.
> >    They tried to do 3-D in the 80's, and loused it up pretty well.
> >  I think that the most important point is this:  No matter how great the ne
w 
> > computer technology is, you still need to spend lot's of money.  You still 
> 
> If the 30 year pattern holds, they still have another 15 years or 
> so until the next attempt in the 2010's.  Computer technology will probably
> be a couple orders of magnitude better by then.  Pixar's technology will 
> look like toy technology.  And a "product" like Pixar's will *then* be
> doable on a $2K computer bought at the local office depot in one hour
> of compute time. In the 2010's.  :-)

Of course, nobody'll go to movies then.  We'll just wear a helmet with
electrodes that plug into the visual cortex and other parts of the
brain.  You'll be able to dial-up and download any "experience" you
want from a pay-per-feel provider.  Any locale or scenario, real or
imagined, will be convincingly played directly into the brain.  You'll
sense sights, sounds, tastes, feel vibrations, etc.  They'll even be
able to stimulate emotions directly, so it won't require good writing
to produce powerful, moving drama.

Of course, they still won't have 3D because, after all, it's just a
fad.

-pd

--------
Peter Davis                    "Education is not the             617/873-4145
BBN Educational Technologies    filling of a pail, but      FAX: 617/873-2455
70 Fawcett Street               the lighting of a fire."       pdavis@xxxxxxx
Cambridge, MA 02138                     -- W. B. Yeats

        URL:  http://copernicus.bbn.com/people/PDavis/


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