Future of 3D

[P3D emdesher <emdesher@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Some thoughts on several recent related threads: computors, digital
cameras vs conventional 3D cameras, and the future of stereo.  Perhaps
many of you remember when film making, using Super-8 cameras (or regular 8
if you really go back!), was the only way to make home movies.  Many
different brands of cameras and methods of sound sync were developed,
ranging from el cheapo to near 16mm quality (Bolex H8 Rex).  The point is
that it was rapidly replaced when a new technology-video-became available.
Video is far cheaper than film, easy to operate, and a convenient method
of viewing the image was already sitting in your living room.  Slide film
sales have plunged, ask any camera store and they will tell you that slide
film is only about 10% of their sales.  I think 3D photographers are the
last major group (consumer, non-professional) still projecting their
images-mom and pop family vacation slide shows are now a rarity (probably
a blessing!).  So it's not a unrealistic expectation to think that a
digital stereo camera, could eventually replace our classic mechanical
cameras from the 50's.  It is amazing that these cameras have lasted this
long-how many consumer products today last very long?  Continuing with the
film-video analogy, it very likely that current planar digital cameras
will become cheaper, and the accompanying film/computer co-development
will improve.  The photographic mass market is concentrated on under $150
point and shoot cameras.  Their appeal is low cost, easy to use, and you
don't have to know anything about photography.  Stereo, in MHO, requires
some basic understanding of 3D theory and be willing to spend some time
on it.  Stereo is a hobby, in the best sense of that term, in that it's
fun and a great way to spend your leisure time.  But how many people fit
that catagory today?  I once started a camera repair course, but was
quickly disappointed to learn that most people (over 90%) buy cheap,
(defined here as $125 and under) cameras, and will not get them repaired
IF the charge is more than 1/3 the cost of a new camera.  Camera
manufacturers spend vast sums on product design and technology, but the
actual production cost per unit is rather low, around $40.  It's cheaper
for them to replace the camera than repair it if returned under a warrenty
claim.  The point is that camera models need large production runs to
amortize the R&D costs-at least 100,000 units.  Can anyone realistically
say that stereo would sell in that range?  The first digital stereo camera
would be very expensive to develop, and would take take quite a leap of
faith to justify.  If this is true, where does it leave us?  3D
photographers risk becoming more and more just collectors, with the rest
of the photographic industry leaving us further and further behind.  I am
not certain about the future, other than hoarding slide film!  Dennis
Sherwood  P.S. Dr T, your opinion?-don't quit!


------------------------------