Re: Stereo's Future

[P3D Larry Berlin <lberlin@xxxxxxxxx>]

>Date: Tue, 07 Oct 1997
>From: P3D  Peter Davis writes:
>
>There's been some interesting speculation on the future of stereo
>photography.  The main trends seem to be:
>
>   1)	Like everything else, products will become more mass-market
>	oriented, and less specialist oriented.  The economics of
>	this trend are obvious.

*****  This trend is obvious because it is taking place, but not because
there is an economic force behind it for any natural reason. Economics in
many fields has proven over and over that diversity is more economically
feasible. It's more interesting, it meets more individual needs, and it's
the model provided by nature that has been successful for thousands of
years. Any systems that fail to realize that the mass market as we currently
know it is a sick system will itself become sick as a result.

Consider magazines. In recent years they have become more and more
specialized and the number of new and different magazines has exploded, and
they are thriving as a result. The same strategy can be applied to any mass
marketing to increase the choices not decrease them. Our technology makes
doing that possible, yet at the moment it isn't being used for diversity.
The process actually works and is very profitable. It shouldn't take too
long for big business to realize they are missing a few good bets.

Technical expertise, which this generation knows and possesses, is the tool
to providing greater diversity, not less. The market for anything sags when
diversity decreases. Who *wants* to shop in Wal-Mart anymore? For prices,
yes, but not for any other reason. Traveling this summer brought this home,
because there were very few places to shop while away from home that didn't
look, smell, and feel just like the stores close to home. Why go shopping?
There isn't much incentive anymore. You can do that close to home.
Convenience is the only thing that is met by some of the current trends.
Boredom is very much a part of the current system and boredom is NOT good
business.

The next step is for these mega corporations to wake up and realize that
their immense size and resources can help them appear more individualized,
not less so. When that brings another chunk of profitability to their
operations, it will seem very worth doing.

To bring this back to stereo topics, stereo is a rich environment with all
different kinds of options. We need all those options. We need businesses
that support stereo work to remain diverse and support even the lesser used
options. Some will inevitably fall into disuse, but that doesn't have to
happen for really important aspects. The very diversity of this special
interest can help build strength and vigor into future decades. If we as
consumers insist on diversity and quality it does have an effect that goes
farther than accepting and using a less satisfactory situation.

>
>   2)	Stereo will continue to be a niche market, with perhaps
>	some periods of growth, and some of decline in interest.

*****  This statement is only true if 3D remains little known, and that
isn't likely to remain the case for very long. As it gets easier to use and
more fun applications are provided to the public, the general interest in it
will grow. It's more a question of how long before the momentum picks up.

One key element that would make the biggest change overall would be a GUI
for computers in which full time stereoscopic displays for any program or
application is the standard, and using the old boring 2D would be the lesser
option. Not until that point is reached will people start to think in 3D and
realize how much opportunity has been missing previously. That point would
mark a dramatic turning point as creative persons would start working in 3D
for *normal* stuff and it would become natural to create in and for that
medium. It's kind of like the internet. It required a certain technical base
to be established, and beyond that point it was like finding yourself in a
new home. All sorts of new and exciting opportunities were suddenly at your
disposal. Even a few years earlier, none of the things the internet makes
possible were even in anyone's mind.

Complaining that 3D will remain a niche market sounds too much like
MicroSoft missing out on the potential of the internet from their own lack
of vision. Now they are playing catch up, and that's what a number of others
will have to do when the public finally catches on.

>
>In my opinion, there's no doubt as to the reason that stereo remains a
>niche market: viewing.  You can stuff a print in your pocket, pass it
>around at the office, put it on your wall, etc.  Most of the
>population doesn't want to have to wear special glasses, headsets,
>helmets, etc. to look at pictures.

*******  Yes, viewing, or more specifically delivery of stereo images to the
prospective audience is and has been the problem. That's precisely what
several current technical trends are addressing (too slowly). They haven't
reached a fully ideal place yet, but what's there hasn't be showcased to the
public yet either. You can't throw out the new technology before it's been
given a fair shot at being received and used. One big missing ingredient is
motivation. With motivation the audience will do lots of strange things for
their pleasure including wearing LCS glasses, polarized glasses, and any
number of other special devices. Right now there isn't much to persuade them
to take the trouble. If you invite someone over to eat at your new
restaurant, will they come back if they aren't provided with actual food to
enjoy? Not likely. Yet that's how most marketing for 3D products had been
approached. It's like selling emply plates of food, it doesn't work. Get a
few gourmet chefs putting food on the plates and you will have a different
story. Till that's been tried, it's too early to predict a lack of interest
on the part of the public for stereo 3D.

Larry Berlin

Email: lberlin@xxxxxxxxx
http://www.sonic.net/~lberlin/
http://3dzine.simplenet.com/


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