P3D Re: NSA Convention at the Marriot

[roberts@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (John W Roberts)]

>Date: Mon, 25 May 1998 15:46:05 -0600
>From: "Dr. George A. Themelis" <DrT-3d@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: P3D Re: NSA Convention at the Marriot

>"Destructive" Deering does not know what the initials NSA mean

That's too bad.

>but he knows a lot about national conventions and publishing
>magazines.

But that's good, isn't it? We can benefit from his willingness to share his
knowledge on these matters.

>Harry Poster has been in most NSA conventions for the past
>20 years.  So, if he thinks that having no rooms in May is
>a problem then IT IS A PROBLEM.

I don't think anyone said it wasn't. (Though as I mentioned, I didn't have
any problem getting a reservation three days later - perhaps in the meantime
the local "Seinfeld" fan club cancelled its annual meeting, thus freeing
up the rooms. :-)

>>The size of the room block is a tough call, happening a year or 
>>more in advance.  If they guess too high, then the prices for the 
>>meeting rooms and other accomodations will go up, which will wreck 
>>the budget.  

>These are generalities Tom... We are in May, Stereo World just
>came out with the room information and applications.  Some people
>in remote parts of the country might have not received the recent
>Stereo World issue yet.  Not everyone can go to the Internet and
>get the information.  If there are no rooms now, then this is
>definitely a problem and someone will have some explaining to do.

I think the point Tom was making was that predicting the turnout
and the corresponding finances is a horribly difficult and generally
thankless task, with a high potential for disaster. So if it turns out
that the attendance was underestimated, then it's not necessarily purely
on account of stupidity (as some of the screamers generally seem to assume),
but of a miscalculation in predicting the future. I think Harry's post
was reasonable in pointing out some problems, and Tom's post was reasonable
in pointing out that it's not surprising if there are problems even with
competent planners who mean well. Your points are also legitimate, but
they should not have been presented as a flame and a personal attack on Tom.

In support of Tom's view, I co-hosted a technical workshop last year for 
85 attendees, out of a projected attendance of 50-100, and working out 
the finances as a function of predicted attendance was indeed extremely 
difficult and risky. This year I'm planning a larger workshop (different
topic), with a much wider range (at the moment) in the predicted attendance.
Naturally I'm trying to shift as much of the cost as I can to a per-person 
basis, but the nature of the NSA convention makes this method far 
less available to them.

Another challenge for making long-range plans: often the hotel makes major
errors in predicting the amount of space that will be available. For example,
new facilities may have been planned for completion in time to use, but
the construction is delayed. Or a scheduled renovation is not finished in
time. Or a whole wing of the hotel gets flooded out by the sprinkler system
and has to be repaired on an unscheduled basis.

Does anybody know the past history of attendance at NSA conventions? Has it
been steady, predictable, not varying with geographic location and the
passage of time? Does the NSA have enough money in the bank to cover one
major financial disaster? If the answer to these questions is "yes", then one
would certainly hope to get a good prediction of the attendance. If there
are any "no's", then I can see how they might make an error.

John R


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