Re: [photo-3d] Re: eBay statistics

[Linda Nygren <lnygren@xxxxxxx>]

Interesting, although I wonder if the statistical results would be
similar on items such as collectibles which are rare (or perceived as
rare), where I would assume that the spread might be a lot more and the
potential higher for bidding-fever and/or very high bids for fear of
never seeing that item again? In other words, a larger emotional
component. I would also guess that there are other factors much more
important than ending time of an auction, including reputation of the
seller (e.g. Dr T), good descriptions and photos of the items, catchy
title, appropriate words in title so that the item is found in common
searches, etc. Harder to measure this statistically, of course,
especially since no 117 Realists are alike. And there probably haven't
been enough VM cutters or Steinheil WA attachments sold in the last year
to get very meaningful statistics.

I think most casual ebay bidders do not do the extensive searches that
many of us more rabid collectors and shooters do, and less experienced
bidders probably also get discouraged easily and don't necessarily bid
on the next one that comes along even if they are able to find it. Or
people do ebay heavily for a while, then figure out that they are going
broke and back off. Or the original bid was somewhat of an impulse, then
when they give it further consideration they decline to bid again on a
similar item. 

"Ebaying" is a bit of an art, or at least a craft. And some of us are
craftier than others. -Linda


RMac@xxxxxxx wrote:
> 
> I did a little bit of research on this myself.
> 
> Over a three month period, a certain company auctioned off over
> 117 identical hard disk drives, two or three per day at random
> times.  Ads were virtually identical.
> 
> Bids on each auction ranged from 6 to 25.
> Prices varied by a factor of more than  2:1, but clustered around
> plus or minus 15% of the mean selling price.
> 
> There was no discernable correlation between number of bids
> and final price.
> 
> There was no discernable correlation between time of day or day
> of week and final price.
> 
> One surprising thing I discovered was that in comparing the
> bidders on the various auctions, there was little overlap between
> one auction and any other, other than for professional lowball
> bidders who bid on every auction and never came close to
> winning any.  Apparently your average bidder has a hard time
> finding, or does not bother to try to find, similar items for sale if
> he loses one auction.
> 
> I saved the data if anyone cares to examine it.
> 
> Robert MacLeay
> The original and only RMac@xxxxxxx
> "Accept no substitutes"
> http://members.aol.com/rmac