T3D Re: TECH-3D digest 531

[Michael Kersenbrock <michaelk@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Brian Reynolds wrote:


> period between 1909 and 1939 aircraft speeds went from 40mph to
> 400mph.  In the period from 1949 to 1969 we went from sub-orbital
> ballistic rockets to landing men on the moon.  In order for computer
> storage technology to grow exponentially the knowledge about such
> technologies has to grow at least that fast.

True, to some extent, but in general terms of what needs to be stored,
the vast majority of knowledge isn't moving that fast, only
the "high tech" ones are.  Also, why must advanced knowledge take
up exponentially  more storage room than less advanced knowledge
(generally speaking)?  If I write a paper upon the subject of stone
knives and bear skins, it might take about the same storage as
a paper on laser eye surgery.   Further, a lot of new-hot technology
might just be a new rose variety that blooms an extra half-day.
It may have gained half a day every ten years, so compared to
a century ago, it's real high-tech, but the information to be
stored in this case is at most constant in terms of amount
produced each year to be stored.   In many fields, "new" is
hardly ever new, even if "revolutionary".  Plots for TV shows
for instance.   :-)

Mike K.

P.S. - If one says "we now know  ten times as much", what
          exactly does that mean?  Without getting too philosophical?
          Is there a "unit" for knowledge measurement?  I'm serious,
          I've heard things like that said for a long time, but never
          really understood what it meant in the mathematical
          sense it's presented .  I've just assumed it was a figure
          of speech, because it's more a matter of knowing different
          than knowing more.  Example: how to build and run
          a Saturn V rocket, as I understand it, no longer exists
          anywhere (except maybe in old Soviet spy archives).
          Some  knowledge isn't  added, it supplants old
          knowledge which is lost, because nobody needs it any
          more.



------------------------------