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Dr. T on 3D Economics



>Another reason for targeting the masses is one of simple economics, 
>there simply aren't enough current "3-D'ers" around to support a new 
>product.  Sad but true, what do you suppose Reel 3D's customer base is?  
>Maybe 20-40,000?

John Vala's comments made me rethink 3D economics.  We tend to over-
estimate the number of people actively interested in 3D.  Defining as a 
customer someone who orders twice a year, if Reel 3-D had 20,000 active 
customers, that will result in about 150 orders a day!  Now this is 
average.  Some people will order more often than others and some days 
there will only be 50 orders while some days there will be 500 orders.  
Clearly, two people cannot handle this volume of work.

Starting in reverse, my guess is that Reel 3-D handles an average of 10 
orders a day, which reduces the number of active customers to about 1000 
a year.  That's it folks, only 1000 people are buying stereo products 
and supplies from the world's largest 3D outfit!

What other indications do we have?  The number of people who belong to 
stereo clubs, or enter PSA competitions, or participate in SSA/PSA 
circuits, is 500 at best.  These are the very active stereo 
photographers.  Number of people who attend NSA conventions?  Number of 
NSA members?  Looking at these numbers I cannot find more than 1000 
active stereo photographers and maybe 5000 people with an *active* 
interest in 3D (including collectors) in the world!!!

(Now, in the 50s, 400,000 stereo cameras were sold.  That's a lot of 
cameras!  My guess is that only 5,000 of those are in the hands of 
active stereo photographers today.  The rest are in the hands of 
collectors, dealers, thrown away, or in storage somewhere.)

To put things into perspective, in a big city like Cleveland and suburbs 
there are no more than 10 active stereo photographers.  That's USA.  In 
an average country like Greece with 10 million population, there are not 
even 5 people taking 3D pictures (no NSA members).  Yet, at least 
100,000 people in Greece own a regular camera (my father, mother, 
brother and sister do!)

These numbers are important for those who would like to offer 3D 
products or services.  For example, assume that I come out with a good 
stereo slide viewer (good lenses, etc.) how many should I expect to 
sell?  My guess is a miserable 100 the first year.  Even though there 
are 1000 or more active stereo photographers, most of them are well set 
in their ways and would not try a new product.  

The following personal story demonstrates the lack of interest for me:  
I have placed a long ad in Stereo World (largest circulation 3D magazine 
in the world) advertising my Revere/Wollensak lenses, halogen bulbs, and 
other viewer supplies and services.  The ad is running now for 3 issues 
in a row.  Response so far:  Three people requested a catalog, one 
person bought lenses and one person (from Germany) wrote to ask about a 
Busch viewer (mentioned in the ad).  Stereo World by mistake omitted a 
few words and my ad reads that I am selling modified red button viewers 
(for 7-p, etc.) for $100 or less!  That's wrong!  This is the price that 
I pay to BUY the (umodified, used) viewers!  I then put a few hours of
work and sell them for more.  And how many requests did I get for the less 
than $100 Dr. T supercharged Realist red button viewers?  Exactly Zero!!!  
It's amazing!

This is the sad state of affairs in 3D.  Much less interest than most 
people imagine, even from the active stereo photographers.  As John Vala 
says, someone can make a successful 3D product (or run a serious 
business selling 3D products) only if they target the general population.  
If they have to rely on existing hard-core 3D enthusiasts, then they will 
have to treat this as a hobby and keep their "day jobs" to make a living.

These are my thoughts... Other opinions, more accurate numbers, etc.
are always welcome! -- George Themelis


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